AHA math rescues Spiders’ season

March 17, 2012

Tiebreakers — and ties — are the Spiders’ friend this season, ushering the Spiders to their fourth straight AHA post-season.

Out of the top six in C3 just over a week ago, the result of a February skid where the Spiders went 0–3–1, the Spiders two consecutive wins in the last week, combined with key losses and, more importantly, ties, in other C3 games, have snuck the Spiders back in the playoff picture, just in time for the post-season gate to slam shut.

With only a week left in the regular season, key matchups across the board had significant playoff implications. The top two spots were already spoken for by Puck Hounds and Wingmen, but spots 3–11 were open as of this week, meaning nine teams were trying to squeeze into four spots. Thanks to the Spiders’ win on Wednesday, and the Royals/Fighting Saints tie, the Spiders are assured a post-season invite. And the nine teams narrows to five trying to grab the last spot.

Key week 19 results:

Spiders over Fighting Ice Fish: There would be no discussion of post-season contention if the Spiders hadn’t turned their loss habits around in March.
Wingmen over Mintalar Moose: The Spiders tie up the Moose in points, though lose on tiebreakers.
Fighting Piranhas/Sled Dogs tie: Allows the Spiders to sit a point ahead of the Piranhas.
Royals/Fighting Saints tie: Effectively puts Spiders into the post-season, as both teams can only tie the Spiders in points (22), and Spiders own tiebreakers over both teams.
Nighthawks over Maroons: Gives Nighthawks third place all alone.

The shakeout of the Royals/Fighting Saints tie means all but the Fighting Piranhas are secured for the post-season. They can finish as high as fourth, and as low as eighth or ninth depending on tiebreakers and results of week 20.

Otherwise, advancing to April hockey:

Puck Hounds
Wingmen
Nighthawks
Mintalar Moose
Spiders

The actual seeding will depend on week 20 results, Sunday through Wednesday. The Spiders can finish as high as fourth (tied with the Nighthawks but losing on tiebreakers), and as low as sixth.

Week 20 matchups:

Mintalar Moose vs. Lakers
Puck Hounds vs. Fighting Piranhas
Wingmen vs. Maroons
Spiders vs. Ak Bars
Diablos vs. Sled Dogs
Fighting Ice Fish vs. Royals
Fighting Saints vs. Nighthawks

Full week 19 standings

2011–12 C3 Standings *(week 19)*
#	Team	GP	W	L	T	OTL	P	GF	GA	PIM
1	Puck Hounds	19	16	3	0	0	32	90	49	140
2	Wingmen	19	15	3	0	1	31	69	35	126
3	Nighthawks	19	11	6	2	0	24	71	46	108
4	Mintalar Moose	19	11	8	0	0	22	69	55	78
5	Spiders	19	10	7	1	1	22	72	58	110
6	Fighting Piranhas	19	9	7	2	1	21	64	56	80
7	Royals	19	9	8	2	0	20	61	76	108
8	Fighting Saints	19	9	8	2	0	20	57	61	134
9	Diablos	19	9	9	1	0	19	64	59	106
10	Sled Dogs	19	8	10	1	0	17	61	60	72
11	Maroons	19	6	10	2	1	15	48	61	110
12	Ak Bars	19	4	11	2	2	12	40	52	94
13	Lakers	19	4	13	2	0	10	47	82	164
14	Fighting Ice Fish	19	3	15	1	0	7	42	105	98

And, the requisite number-crunching, courtesy The AnalStats site:

Chance will make playoffs (courtesy sportsstats)
#	Team	P	W	L	OT	T	GD	%	Change
1	Puck Hounds	32	16	3	0	0	41	In
2	Wingmen	31	15	3	1	0	34	In
3	Nighthawks	24	11	6	0	2	24	In	2.0
4	Mintalar Moose	22	11	8	0	0	14	100.0%	2.8
5	Spiders	22	10	7	1	1	14	100.0%	3.9
6	Fighting Piranhas	21	9	7	1	2	8	28.2%	5.1
7	Royals	20	9	8	0	2	-14	35.5%	-5.4
8	Fighting Saints	20	9	8	0	2	-4	31.4%	-11.1
9	Diablos	19	9	9	0	1	5	4.8%	2.7
10	Sled Dogs	17	8	10	0	1	1	Out
11	Maroons	15	6	10	1	2	-13	Out
12	Ak Bars	11	4	12	1	2	-12	Out
13	Lakers	10	4	13	0	2	-35	Out
14	Fighting Ice Fish	7	3	15	0	1	-63	Out

AHA math rescues Spiders’ season

Regular Season Tiebreakers

Key week 19 results:

Week 20 matchups:

Full week 19 standings

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